Two Final Tables in One Night

Unfortunately neither final table turned out very well. At the $5r I started the final table as one of the chip leaders but I lost a big pot all in pre with AA and then lost a flip to go out 6th.

The $30fo was a great opportunity for me because the final table was full of inexperienced and mostly weak players. Sadly though with 5 left I got coolered with AK into AA and couldnt get there.

I also won a $12 180 yesterday so it was a good day, but it's frustrating to not be able to break though at the bigger final tables. As long as I keep working on my game though I will eventually.

Thanks for reading,

George

Overdue 40k recap

I said I was gonna do a tournament recap in my last post, but I haven't yet. So here it is at long last.

I was short stacked for most of the tournament and on into the money. This weird hand gave me a big stack though and some room to manuever:

Poker Stars $25.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t800/t1600 Blinds + t150 - 9 players - View hand 14343
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



Hero (MP2): t17584 M = 4.69

gcampane (CO): t125762 M = 33.54

SpaceLordOO (BTN): t34756 M = 9.27

Kris Merlot (SB): t24903 M = 6.64

makojim (BB): t59604 M = 15.89

HotKarlMC (UTG): t63718 M = 16.99

905er (UTG+1): t12903 M = 3.44

Mercusen (UTG+2): t62727 M = 16.73

Aryamehr (MP1): t35312 M = 9.42



Pre Flop: (t3750) Hero is MP2 with A K

3 folds, Aryamehr raises to t4278, Hero raises to t17434 all in, gcampane raises to t125612 all in, 3 folds, Aryamehr calls t30884 all in



Flop: (t91508) 8 7 A (3 players - 3 are all in)



Turn: (t91508) 5 (3 players - 3 are all in)



River: (t91508) K (3 players - 3 are all in)



Final Pot: t91508

Hero shows A K (two pair, Aces and Kings)

gcampane shows Q Q (a pair of Queens)

Aryamehr shows Q Q (a pair of Queens)

Aryamehr wins t17728

gcampane wins t17728

Hero wins t56052




Its not often you flop one pair in a 3 way pot and have both opponents drawing stone dead.

And here I win another 3 way preflop all-in:

Poker Stars $25.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t2000/t4000 Blinds + t400 - 8 players - View hand 17735

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



squasher8 (CO): t99552 M = 10.82

tdrot (BTN): t25364 M = 2.76

waterlandse (SB): t153110 M = 16.64

Jamroom (BB): t35719 M = 3.88

tonywhitcomb (UTG): t92696 M = 10.08

Hero (UTG+1): t59748 M = 6.49

SoClever (MP1): t147026 M = 15.98

Napboy (MP2): t58840 M = 6.40



Pre Flop: (t9200) Hero is UTG+1 with A A

1 fold, Hero raises to t9999, SoClever calls t9999, 1 fold, squasher8 calls t9999, 2 folds, Jamroom raises to t35319 all in, Hero raises to t59348 all in, 1 fold, squasher8 calls t49349



Flop: (t169214) 4 8 7 (3 players - 2 are all in)



Turn: (t169214) 9 (3 players - 2 are all in)



River: (t169214) 3 (3 players - 2 are all in)



Final Pot: t169214

squasher8 shows A K (high card Ace)

Jamroom shows K J (high card King)

Hero shows A A (a pair of Aces)

Hero wins t48058

Hero wins t121156




This hand is a great example of the hidden luck in tournaments. After the hand, SoClever said he folded 99 to my shove after flat-calling. Had he re-raised initially, which would have been my preferred play with his hand, I go out way short of the final table. But luckily he folded and I won a huge pot.

A couple orbits later I won another huge pot:

Poker Stars $25.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t2500/t5000 Blinds + t500 - 8 players - View hand 17736

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



makojim (MP2): t131964 M = 11.48

waterlandse (CO): t244080 M = 21.22

AGRESIVO1 (BTN): t106465 M = 9.26

WillyFanny (SB): t180298 M = 15.68

smoke2012 (BB): t185920 M = 16.17

Hero (UTG): t167878 M = 14.60

SoClever (UTG+1): t107888 M = 9.38

Napboy (MP1): t53780 M = 4.68



Pre Flop: (t11500) Hero is UTG with J J

Hero raises to t12500, 3 folds, waterlandse raises to t40000, 3 folds, Hero raises to t167378 all in, waterlandse calls t127378



Flop: (t346256) 4 7 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)



Turn: (t346256) K (2 players - 1 is all in)



River: (t346256) 2 (2 players - 1 is all in)



Final Pot: t346256

waterlandse shows J A (high card Ace)

Hero shows J J (a pair of Jacks)

Hero wins t346256




With 33 BB effective stacks I wasn't thrilled about JJ after my UTG open got re-raised, but I'd seen this opponent make a couple of goofy plays so I felt like I had to go with it. He called me so fast I thought for sure I was behind, but he had a poorly played AJo and I luckily held. A few hands later I busted someone with AK over AQ and became the chip leader with 4 tables left.

I wasn't really able to build on my chip lead though, as people were playing back at me and I wasn't getting hands. But here I won a pretty big pot:

Poker Stars $25.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t4000/t8000 Blinds + t800 - 7 players - View hand 17740

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



makojim (SB): t240105 M = 13.64

cejka1 (BB): t249009 M = 14.15

danskemann (UTG): t777173 M = 44.16

WillyFanny (UTG+1): t172268 M = 9.79

Hero (MP): t309596 M = 17.59

aq12 (CO): t259370 M = 14.74

xoliveoilx (BTN): t146224 M = 8.31



Pre Flop: (t17600) Hero is MP with 8 9

2 folds, Hero raises to t20000, 3 folds, cejka1 calls t12000



Flop: (t49600) 3 9 4 (2 players)

cejka1 bets t32000, Hero calls t32000



Turn: (t113600) J (2 players)

cejka1 bets t48000, Hero calls t48000



River: (t209600) 5 (2 players)

cejka1 bets t56000, Hero calls t56000



Final Pot: t321600

cejka1 shows 7 Q (high card Queen)

Hero shows 8 9 (a pair of Nines)

Hero wins t321600




I open with a suited connector and get called by the big blind, who didnt seem like the strongest opponent. That read was confirmed by his weird bluff here. Once I call 48,000 on the turn it should be clear I'm not folding to a 56,000 bet on the river, especially on such a dry board.

But again I couldnt keep the momentum going and my stack dwindled as the final table approached. I wasn't getting hands and when I tried to steal I got played back at, so I just tried to be patient. I managed to make the final table, but as one of the short stacks with only 16 BBs or so.

Then as soon as the final table started I had this tough spot come up:

Poker Stars $25.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t8000/t16000 Blinds + t1600 - 9 players - View hand 17745

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



makojim (MP1): t298759 M = 7.78

rakeinfools (MP2): t230750 M = 6.01

UPS_NL_PLAYA (CO): t432140 M = 11.25

cubsrock1 (BTN): t524353 M = 13.66

df1986 (SB): t914959 M = 23.83

danskemann (BB): t1181706 M = 30.77

AllybabyMN (UTG): t851938 M = 22.19

Hero (UTG+1): t263196 M = 6.85

HotKarlMC (UTG+2): t999199 M = 26.02



Pre Flop: (t38400) Hero is UTG+1 with 8 8

1 fold, Hero raises to t36666, 4 folds, cubsrock1 raises to t101000, 3 folds



Final Pot: t111732

cubsrock1 wins t111732




This was a really tough spot. I hate to raise preflop and then fold on such a short stack as it costs me such a significant % of my stack. But I figured from early position on such a stack I would get credit for a big hand and that I wouldnt get re-raised light at all. So I raise/folded. I didnt like doing it at all, but I think its an ok play. I posted the hand on 2p2 and everyone said shove, which seemed like a big overbet to me. However I did some math and was surprised to learn that shoving is +chipEV. That doesnt necessarily make it the best play though, as with the flat payout structure at Stars final tables doubling up doesnt double my equity in the tournament, so the risk of busting 9th has to be considered. Overall a very tricky spot.

Soon after that the blinds went up and I was now really short, but I was lucky enough to pick up a hand here vs a loose and wild opponent:

Poker Stars $25.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10000/t20000 Blinds + t2000 - 8 players - View hand 17753

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



rakeinfools (SB): t199150 M = 4.33

UPS_NL_PLAYA (BB): t294540 M = 6.40

cubsrock1 (UTG): t522319 M = 11.35

df1986 (UTG+1): t991359 M = 21.55

danskemann (MP1): t1491265 M = 32.42

AllybabyMN (MP2): t923838 M = 20.08

Hero (CO): t186930 M = 4.06

HotKarlMC (BTN): t1087599 M = 23.64



Pre Flop: (t46000) Hero is CO with A Q

3 folds, AllybabyMN raises to t55000, Hero raises to t184930 all in, 3 folds, AllybabyMN calls t129930



Flop: (t415860) J 2 3 (2 players - 1 is all in)



Turn: (t415860) J (2 players - 1 is all in)



River: (t415860) 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)



Final Pot: t415860

AllybabyMN shows 9 8 (a pair of Jacks)

Hero shows A Q (a pair of Jacks - Ace kicker)

Hero wins t415860




That gave me some breathing room. Here I win another pot against that same player:

Poker Stars $25.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t12500/t25000 Blinds + t2500 - 6 players - View hand 17754

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



UPS_NL_PLAYA (CO): t213540 M = 4.07

df1986 (BTN): t1599773 M = 30.47

danskemann (SB): t1879035 M = 35.79

AllybabyMN (BB): t591191 M = 11.26

Hero (UTG): t343862 M = 6.55

HotKarlMC (MP): t1069599 M = 20.37



Pre Flop: (t52500) Hero is UTG with J J

Hero raises to t56999, 4 folds, AllybabyMN calls t31999



Flop: (t141498) 4 9 A (2 players)

AllybabyMN checks, Hero checks



Turn: (t141498) K (2 players)

AllybabyMN bets t87775, Hero raises to t284363 all in, AllybabyMN folds



Final Pot: t317048

Hero wins t317048




On the ace high flop I decided to check behind and hopefully induce a bluff from an aggressive opponent. The Kd turn was interesting, as it put another overcard out there but also gave me a flush draw. He bet out as expected and now I had a decision. Folding seemed out of the question since this guy never folded his blind and was very aggressive. I would usually call in spots like this since he's not calling with worse, but I decided to shove because I thought my hand would look really strong. I was trying to represent that I'd checked the flop with a monster to trap and then stopped slowplaying because of the third diamond. So I can get him to fold a king hopefully and I also avoid a tricky river spot, as if I'd called his turn bet I may face another barrel on the river.

I now had a great re-steal stack and started punishing the aggressive players to my right by shoving over their raises. By doing this I was able to stay ahead of the blinds and chip up from 500k to 670k during 4 handed play. I was very unlucky in that the other 3 players were all very strong and very experienced MTT players; between them they had nearly 10,000 MTTs played and nearly $400,000 in lifetime MTT winnings. That just shouldnt happen in a $25 MTT, you'd expect something like that from a $100 rebuy final table.

Anyways, I finally busted out after df1986 got tired of my constant resteals and made a hero call:

Poker Stars $25.00+$2.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15000/t30000 Blinds + t3000 - 4 players - View hand 17758

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter



df1986 (CO): t1803255 M = 31.64

danskemann (BTN): t1862392 M = 32.67

Hero (SB): t687901 M = 12.07

HotKarlMC (BB): t1343452 M = 23.57



Pre Flop: (t57000) Hero is SB with A J

df1986 raises to t69999, 1 fold, Hero raises to t684901 all in, 1 fold, df1986 calls t614902



Flop: (t1411802) 9 7 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)



Turn: (t1411802) 9 (2 players - 1 is all in)



River: (t1411802) 2 (2 players - 1 is all in)



Final Pot: t1411802

df1986 shows 8 A (two pair, Nines and Eights)

Hero shows A J (a pair of Nines)

df1986 wins t1411802




There is another dynamic that you can't tell from the hand history, which was that HotKarl in the big blind had disconnected and was sitting out. When the big blind is disconnected it leads to leveling wars between the other players, as everyone just assumes you dont have anything and are just raising because of the dead big blind. It's much like the situation I described in an earlier post about blind stealing, where trying to steal a tight player's blind isn't necessarily a good idea if the players behind you realize that's what youre trying to do and start re-raising you with garbage.

So the combination of the dead big blind and my constant resteals led df1986 to conclude I was full of it and didn't have it, as he beat me into the pot after I shoved with his A8o. Sadly I didn't hold and that was that.

I'm very happy with how I played though, and hopefully another final table is coming soon. Thanks to lucko, eusebio, lj, roflcopter and anyone else who was railing.

Thanks for reading,

George

Made a Final Table

I've made several deep runs in this tournament in the past but I wasn't able to break through and make the final table until last night. Definitely a nice cash for me but I'm kinda disappointed it wasn't more as I took a pretty rough beat 4 handed to bust out. I'm very happy with how I played though, and hopefully there are plenty more final tables in my immediate future.

At some point I'll probably post some key hands, right now I'm too tired though as the tournament went late into the night.

Thanks for reading,

George

Passport Freeroll

Just busted from the Passport freeroll, obviously it didn't go as I'd hoped. The structure was pretty bad with 2000 starting stacks and 10 minute levels, kinda disappointing given how much was on the line, dont think it would have been too much to ask for them to give us 3000 chips and 15 minute levels.

Anyways, I steadily chipped up to 4200, only hand I showed down was AA where I got 3 streets of value from 88 on a jack-high board. Then with blinds 75/150/20 I opened AK in early position, the big blind 3-bet, I shoved he called with JJ and he won the race. Standard hand, I just couldn't win the flip.

It definitely sucks to not get anything out of the freeroll, but I'm happy with how I played and least I got the bust out over with early and didn't take a soul-crushing beat on the bubble. And even though I didn't cash in the freeroll, I still benefited from it as it motivated me to play a lot of volume in December and I had by far my best month ever. Hopefully Stars has this promotion every year.

Thanks for reading,

George

Fooled by Randomness: applied to poker

One of the gifts I got for Christmas was the book Fooled by Randomness. I just started reading it and so far I've found it to be very interesting. One topic discussed is that in the financial world, many traders who have made a lot of money and are seen as smart traders are actually just the beneficiaries of the randomness in the market, and eventually go broke. The author also argued that a trade shouldn't be judged by whether or not it made money but instead on the logic behind the trade.

Given my poker-obsessed brain, I immediately got to thinking about how much this relates to poker. Any good poker player knows to avoid results-oriented thinking (ROT), which can come in multiple forms. The most blatant example of ROT is the beginner who gets all in with the nuts, loses on the river, and wonders if the loss could have been avoided. The answer (barring some contrived bubble situation) is that getting the money in as a big favorite is a good thing, and that his subsequent bad luck is just part of the game.

Another example of ROT is when someone makes a terrible play, but because the terrible play results in winning the pot, the player feels like he made a good play. Quick example: you have 33 and raise to 3 BBs UTG at a full table. A tight player than shoves for 20 BBs. You call, the tight player has AK, and you win the pot and think you made the right play. But a tight player likely has a range of JJ+,AK, so your call was a poor one against the tight players range.

I know most of my readers already know what ROT is, but I think its important to explain it so we can examine it more deeply. As poker players, we know we shouldn't get too hung up on the results of individual hands, individual tournaments, or even individual sessions. However, I always click on the cashier button at the end of my sessions to see how much I won or lost. Most tournament players (myself included) become obsessed with results graphs on Sharkscope, and ROI and total profit on oprankings. Cash game players with their constant PokerTracker graphs are probably even worse.

Obviously a larger sample size gives a more telling indication of a player's true ability, but even that can be very misleading. For example, take me. On the two sites oprankings.com tracks (Full Tilt and Stars), I've played almost 1600 MTTs, and I've played hundreds more on Ultimate Bet. From that many MTTs, you'd think you could get a good idea of my overall tournament skill. But there are several huge problems. One is that the sample covers a time span of over 2 years. I was a completely different player in the summer of 2006 when I first deposited on UB than I am now. Also, the average player has become much stronger over that time period, thanks to the UIGEA and the myriad training sites that have been formed. And don't forget I've played in tournaments with buy-ins ranging from $1 to $500, so the strength of the opposition has been drastically different. And not all $30 freezeouts are created equal. Sometimes I'll be at a table with two strong LAGs on my left making my life miserable, and other times I'll have position on two fish trying to give their stacks away. So I don't think 1600+ tournaments over 2.5 years is anywhere close to a large enough sample to determine my true expectation in tournaments.

As more and more of my friends and relatives have learned about my poker-playing, they almost invariably ask me if I make money. Talking poker with people who know nothing about it can be frustrating, summed up by the old joke:

-"How much have you won at poker?"
-"About $20,000"
-"But how much did you lose?"

Anyways, I always try to be modest and mention that while I've made some money, there's a lot of variance and I'm certainly not making enough to support myself. But questions like that aren't just limited to poker novices. Most players often ask themselves that same question, but they phrase it slightly differently, instead asking "Am I a winning player?" or, more specifically, "Am I profitable in $50 SNGs?" or "Am I +EV at $2/$5 live cash games?"

But many players go about finding the answer in completely the wrong way, by looking towards the past. They look at their past results, usually over a sample size that is way too small, and get their answer that way. These players aren't answering the question "Am I a winning player?", they're answering "Was I a winning player?" It's a key distinction. The bottom line is that your past results don't matter when you start a tournament; what matters is the quality of your poker decisions at every decision point during that tournament. When you flop a set in that tournament, you won't get maximum value by having won a big tournament the day before, you'll get maximum value by making good poker decisions; knowing when to play the set slow to trap your opponent, or when to bet and raise aggressively.

The bottom line is to make sure you avoid thinking about results as much as possible. Instead focus on improving your decision making. I know that's my goal for 2009 and beyond. I just capped off my most profitable year ever with by far my most profitable month ever, but will that help me on Sunday in the TLB Passport freeroll? Of course not. What will help me is making the best possible decisions throughout the tournament. I was a profitable player in 2008, but I won't be in the future if I get content and don't keep trying to improve my game.

The massive amount of variance in poker is what makes it so great. Even terrible players can go on long hot streaks, run up a huge bankroll, and think they're great. But if they keep making bad decisions, they'll eventually be broke, and the people making good decisions will end up with the money. No matter who you are, if you work hard enough at your game, you'll end making the right decisions more often than not, and become a profitable player. So when setting goals for yourself in the new year, stop worrying about results and instead worry about making good decisions. Find your leaks (whether its tilting, bluffing too much, not bluffing enough, not value-betting enough, not balancing your range, etc.) and try to plug them. Make enough good decisions, and the good results will come.

Thanks for reading,

George

Clay Davis (extended version)

yep, thats how things have been going lately for me in poker. oh well, it happens.

for some entertainment, here's a link to a great top 25 involving Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson.

I should have some poker content up in the next couple days, sorry for the lack of content recently.

Thanks for reading,

George

Quick Update

I was able to hang on to the top 100 for the December monthly TLB, as I finished 59th. Stars gave me $100 for that, which I didn't know about, but more importantly I am all set for the Passport freeroll on the 18th of January. The combined lifetime profit of those 100 is well into 7 figures, so it will be a very tough field. Hopefully I can luck-box a win.

I plan to get back to playing tonight, hopefully I can keep running good. In December I played way more volume than I ever have, and not coincidentally it was also my most profitable month ever. I doubt I will have the motivation or the spare time to play that much this month, but I will certainly be playing as much as I can. The variance in MTTs is huge, but I'll try my best to withstand the downswings and keep playing my best .

Thanks for reading,

George