Blind stealing/defending: common misconceptions

I haven't done a strategy post in a while so I thought I would cover a much discussed topic in tournament poker: stealing the big blind and defending your big blind.

As any tournament player worth his salt knows, stealing the blinds is very important to building your stack and surviving when you aren't getting good cards. It is of course better to steal in late position, because there are fewer players behind you who can wake up with a real hand and play back at you. And it's definitely useful to have reads on your opponents, as stealing from tight players is going to be more profitable than stealing from loose players.

But one thing I have noticed many players get way too hung up on is how tight the player in the big blind is. Unless it folds to you in the small blind, you don't just have to get past the big blind, you have to get past the other players still to act as well. And if those players are noticing the same things you are, they'll recognize that you may very well be raising light and play back at you. So it ceases to become a good spot to steal.

Here is an example of such a situation from the final two tables of the WSOP Europe Main Event, involving Scott Fischman. Let's take a look at an excerpt:

"Interviewer: You were involved in a hand last night that has sparked a lot of debate when you ended up in a huge all-in confrontation with 10-2 against Brian Townsend's pocket kings. Can you explain the reasoning behind that fascinating hand?

Fischaman: The first thing was that the guy in the big blind was the tightest player in the entire world. The first hand on his big blind went raise, reraise, and then a squeeze, which just made me think “wow.” The next round on his blind, it went exactly the same. Everybody knew that this guy's blind was the one to go after, and it was creating a lot of action between Kongsgaard and [Johnny] Lodden, especially.

Anyway, so the next time it was on his blind, I raised with 10-2 to 11,000,"

Let's stop right here. Now I certainly haven't had the results Scott Fischman has had, but he's not making too much sense here. Trying to steal this guys blind hasn't been working, yet he raises in early position with T2. There is a raise and re-raise back to him, he decides both guys are full of it and shoves, and runs into KK. Oops. He never says why he opened the T2, but if it was with the plan of 5-bet shoving that seems on the suicidal side to me. But as he says later in the article, "obviously it was the right play by me." Umm, ok.

The second misconception is on the subject of how to go about defending your blind. Many players seem to think that when their big blind gets raised, the best way to go about defending it is to call. After all, against one of the 2.5x raises that are becoming very popular in online tournaments once the antes come in, the player in the big blind has to call 1.5 big blinds to call 2.5+1+0.5+1 = 5 big blinds, so 3.33 to 1 odds. Against all but the nittiest of raising ranges, most hands have 30% equity, so players figure it is correct to call very wide.

But here's the problem: preflop pot odds are consistently mis-applied when there is still postflop play. If someone moved all in for 2.5 BBs, then you would be correct to call with any two cards. But when there is postflop play, the hand is not going to be checked down. You are only paying to see the 3 cards on the flop, and you will likely face a continuation bet. The majority of the time you will miss the flop, and even when you do hit the flop you will often have middle pair or bottom pair and be in a difficult spot and have to fold to resistance. So if you are calling to hit a flop, you're going to be check-folding more than 70% of the time, and those pot odds aren't looking as good any more.

When considering the preflop pot odds from the big blind, you shouldnt be thinking about what your equity is against his range. Instead, think about how often you are going to be able to win the pot. If your opponent is weak-tight and will check/fold postflop when he misses, then you can call with weak hands and take the pot away enough to make it profitable. But if your opponent is a strong player who will c-bet often and play well postflop, youre going to have a tough time winning the pot out of position with a weak hand, so you are probably better off folding.

Another factor is implied odds, as in how much you can win when you do make a hand. So if the stacks are really deep and your opponent is a maniac who will almost never fold, you can call raises with weak hands with the expectation of winning a huge pot when you do hit. But thats a rare combination in an online tournament, as the stacks aren't usually deep enough to allow for this.

So calling raises from your big blind hoping to hit is not a very strong defense. Most good players will actually be more likely to go after your blind if you do this. The best way to defend your blind is to instead go on the offensive and re-raise. I know that when someone starts re-raising my blind steals, I'm definitely not going to steal as aggressively.

Thanks for reading,

George