WPT Hand Analysis: Isaac Haxton vs. Ryan Daut

I played very little poker over the weekend, but I did watch some poker on TV. While most TV hands are just preflop all ins without much to analyze, I saw a very very interesting hand yesterday on the broadcast of the 2007 PCA final table, and I thought I would give my thoughts on it.

The hand occured during heads up play between Isaac Haxton and Ryan Daut, two guys who were doing very well at mid-limit online cash games at the time. So while they were both complete unknowns to your average televised poker fan, both players are very strong and have since had good results in big live tournaments.

Anyways, onto the hand. At the time, Daut had about 2 to 1 chip lead over Haxton, with 12 million chips to Haxtons 6.5 million. The blinds were 100k/200k.

Daut was on the button and chose to limp in with 7s 5c. On TV they dont show every hand, but so far Daut had always come in raising on his button, so this was a switch for him. Certainly nothing wrong with limping the button heads up though, any hand is playable when you'll have position throughout the hand.

Haxton in the big blind had 3d 2d and checked.

The flop was As Qh 4h.

Haxton checked, and Daut bet 300k. Pretty standard bet by Daut here, most flops miss most hands, so Haxton doesnt figure to have a piece of the flop, and with no pair no draw he would happy to take down the pot now.

Haxton chose to call with his gutshot straight draw. Clearly he isnt getting the expressed odds to draw at a gutshot, and the implied odds arent really there either because Daut probably doesnt have anything and is unlikely to end up with a costly second best hand. But by calling here, Haxton is setting up Daut to take the pot away on a later street, either with a turn check-raise or a river bet if Daut checks the turn. He may have been planning to represent a flush if a third heart came off as well.

The turn was the Kd, making the board As Qh 4h Kd.

Haxton checked, and Daut decided to check behind. I think this would have been a decent spot to fire a second barrel, since Haxton is unlikely to have an A in his hand because of his preflop check. The problem though is that the reverse applies as well; Daut is unlikely to have an A because of his preflop limp. By checking here, Daut is also giving himself a chance to bluff a lot of rivers, as he would likely bet the flop and check the turn with a heart draw or with a Jx or Tx hand. So on a heart, jack or ten river he can potentially bluff-raise or just bet if Haxton checks again. He also might just have decided to give up on the hand and cut his losses.

The river is the Qc, making the final board As Qh 4h Kd Qc and missing all the draws out there on the turn.

Haxton bets 700k. Haxton pretty much has to bet here. For one thing, its the only way he can the pot as he holds the nut low. But Daut also showed weakness by checking the turn. So its a good bet by Haxton.

Now lets look at things from Daut's perspective. He's seen Haxton check his option preflop, call a moderate bet on the flop, and now lead out on the river. On the surface this line from Haxton would seem like a strong hand. But lets take a look at Haxton's range of hands. His preflop check could be any number of hands, but hands Haxton would likely raise with include any ace and any pair. So Daut can eliminate those hands.

Then on the flop, Haxton check-called on an AQ4 two hearts board. So his range of hands include Qx, 4x, flush draws, and gutshot straight draws 52, 53, or 32. Gutshot straight draws KJ,KT and JT are also possible, although its possible Haxton raises preflop with those hands.

Now Haxton bets out on the river after Daut showed weakness on the turn by checking. Lets think about what Haxton would do on the river with each of those hands. With a 4 theres no way he bets, he would check again and hope to get to showdown, and maybe call a bet from Daut. With KJ, KT or a K high flush draw that made a pair on the turn, he would almost certainly check in hopes of picking off a bluff; its conceivable he would make a thin value bet hoping to be paid off by a 4, buts that very unlikely. With a Q or JT, theres a good chance he would value bet, but he also might check thinking that Daut has nothing and the only way he extracts value is by checking to induce a bluff. But with a busted draw, Haxton would almost certainly bet out rather than give up and check the hand down. Haxton is an aggressive player and is extremely unlikely to play a draw so passively.

Recognizing that most of Haxton's range is busted draws, Daut makes an excellent play and decides to raise, making it 2 million total.

Haxton has now been caught with his hand in the cookie jar, and you'd think he would just fold his hand. But while almost any player would just give up here and fold, lets look at things from Haxton's perspective and try to analyze Daut's range.

Preflop Daut limped in on the button. This could mean any number of hands, but since Daut had been raising so many buttons, its unlikely Daut has an A or a pocket pair. It is conceivable that Daut limped with aces or kings to set a trap, but he would probably raise with those hands as well.

Now on the flop, Daut bets 3/4 of the pot after Haxton checked to him. This bet does almost nothing to narrow Daut's range, as Daut would probably bet his entire range here.

But what does narrow Dauts range is his check on the turn. Like I said earlier, Daut would probably check behind on the turn with a draw. He also could be checking behind with a bluff that is no pair no draw. He also probably checks behind with Kx, Qx, or 4x. But the one kind of hand that Daut is very unlikely to check behind on the turn is a pair of aces or better. Daut is an aggressive player, therefore when he has a big hand he almost always plays it fast and tries to win big pots when he has big hands. So if he had Ax, two pair, a straight, or a set, he very likely bets the turn again, both for value and to protect against the flush and straight draws.

Then on the river Haxton bets out and gets raised by Daut. Lets think what Daut would do this with. If he had a pair of kings or a pair of fours, he would either call the river or fold, he would never raise and turn a marginal hand with showdown value into a bluff since he knows Haxton either has a monster or nothing. With trip queens, theres a good chance he would value-raise, but its also quite possible he would simply call thinking that Haxton is only calling or raising with the case queen or a straight. Notice that QJ is the same hand as Q2 here; both hands are QQQAK, the kickers dont play. So there is almost no value in raising with trip queens unless he thinks he can get Haxton to fold trip queens, which is very unlikely. But with a missed draw or any other no pair hand, Daut's only chance to win is to raise. And we know Daut is an aggressive and thinking player, so he's certainly capable of making a bluff raise.

So thinking that Daut's river raising range is mostly bluffs, Haxton decides to shove for his last 6 million. Its a world class play. Its one thing for me to sit here and analyze the hand after the fact, and its quite another to reach these conclusions at the table when you're on TV playing heads up for $700,000 (first place was $1.5 million and second was $850k). Its no wonder that Haxton has been doing well in tournaments and moving up to high stakes online cash games and doing well. Daut played his hand well also, but unfortunately Haxton was able to get the last bet in, and he obviously couldnt call the river with 7 high.

After Daut folded, Haxton showed his hand. Daut handled it very well, smiling and telling Haxton he was gonna enjoy watching that one on TV. But Daut had the last laugh, going on to win the tournament.

Overall, one of the best I can ever remember seeing on TV. The only better one I can think of is the well-known Phil Ivey hand where he 5-bets the flop with queen high no draw.

Hopefully everyone enjoys this, let me know if I screwed up the hand analysis too badly.

Thanks for reading,

George